An Analysis of State AYP Results for 2007-08
The number of schools
failing to make adequate yearly progress (AYP) under No Child Left Behind (NCLB) rose significantly according to the latest
2007-08 AYP results, both in Vermont and nationally. In many cases, student performance has
improved, but such improvement is not sufficient to meet the higher AYP targets
schools in more than 40 states. Missouri,
Montana, North Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming saw the percentage of schools failing
AYP double or triple. As a result,
states with rigorous standards can appear lagging behind as the proficiency
targets continue to climb to 100 percent by 2014.
Overall, the percentage of schools failing AYP benchmarks has
risen dramatically. In many cases the sprouting effect of AYP has reached many
suburban schools, which until now had been able to avoid the labeling under
NCLB partly because of having fewer subgroups. However, as proficiency targets
rise in the next few years, more suburban or even rural schools could be landed
on the list for schools failing AYP.
Vermont experienced a substantial increase in the number of
schools failing AYP this year. However,
there are two structural changes that accounted for the increase and the results
should not lead one to believe that substantially more Vermont public schools
are “failing” than in prior years. NCLB
cohorts require at least 40 students to take a test before AYP determinations
is made. Vermont recently switched from
testing only at three grade levels previously to seven grade levels now (the
test is the New England Common Assessment Program). This change meant that many Vermont schools
that were previously ignored for AYP determinations now meet the 40-student
cohort requirement and was identified as failing AYP for the first time.
Another factor was that the number of students who are
required to test as proficient or better to “pass” AYP is increased in Vermont
every three years, and 2007-08 was such a year.
These two factors heavily contributed to the increase in the percentage
of Vermont schools failing AYP from 12 percent to 38 percent.
Because no structural changes to the AYP determinations will
occur until the next “bump up” period in three years, Vermont Department of Education
officials do not expect to see a dramatic increase in the percentage of schools
failing AYP in the next year or two.
However, increases should be expected over time because NCLB
requirements are tiered so that by 2014, 100 percent of students are expected
to be proficient. 100 percent
proficiency is a standard which no state has yet achieved, and some experts
question whether it is statistically attainable.
This article was
adapted from a NSBA report, with state-level information written
by David Cyprian.
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